Last season, the San Francisco 49ers got off to a 1-10 record, and looked like they were destined for one of the top two picks in the 2018 NFL Draft. After trading a second-round pick to the New England Patriots for backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the Niners decided to hand the starting job to their new quarterback for the final five contests last season and went undefeated during their final stretch.
Thanks to Garoppolo’s play at the end of last season, the 49ers became one of the betting favorites during the offseason, with some people believing the team has what it takes to win the Super Bowl next season. One of the bets people are making is the 49ers totals wins this season.
With so many people on the Garoppolo bandwagon, you would expect the 49ers win total for next season to be high, but it is currently at 8.5 wins. When the lines opened, they were at nine wins, but now that they have signed the majority of their free agents and draft picks, the line has dropped slightly because bettors apparently aren’t as hot on the 49ers as they were at the end of last season.
Another reason bettors aren’t heavy on the 49ers win total is the fact that they stand to make more money by fading the total. When the lines opened, the over was at -130, which means you have to bet $130 to win $100.
The under was set at +125, which means you will win $125 if you placed a $100 bet on the team winning less than 8.5 games. The fact that there is more value in taking the under on this bet is one of the reasons bettors have been fading the win total.
Thanks to the bettors taking the under on the win total, the line has shifted in recent weeks. Now, the over remains at -130, while the under is +110.Another reason bettors have been taking the under in recent weeks is the suspension of linebacker Rueben Foster. Foster was in the news for all the wrong reasons this season and is fortunate to still be a member of the team.
Foster faced some felony charges stemming from a domestic violence charge against him as well as a weapons charge. Most of the charges against him have been dismissed, but the NFL suspended him for the first three contest of next season for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
With Foster out of the lineup, the 49ers will be without one of their best defenders for the first three games of the season, which might have an impact on how well they play.
There are also some that believe that the 49ers were successful at the end of last season because defenses didn’t have enough tape on Garoppolo. Now that they have seen him in action, they will be able to devise game plans to stop or slow him down.
Since the 49ers won six games last season with a roster that isn’t as good as the one they have this season, there is no reason to believe they won’t win at least nine games this season.
San Francisco 49ers Games
|Sep 9||@ Minnesota Vikings||-5½||46½||1:00 PM|
|Sep 16||Detroit Lions||4:05 PM|
|Sep 23||@ Kansas City Chiefs||1:00 PM|
|Sep 30||@ Los Angeles Chargers||4:25 PM|
|Oct 7||Arizona Cardinals||4:25 PM|
|Oct 15||@ Green Bay Packers||8:15 PM|
|Oct 21||Los Angeles Rams||8:20 PM|
|Oct 28||@ Arizona Cardinals||4:25 PM|
|Nov 1||Oakland Raiders||8:20 PM|
|Nov 12||New York Giants||8:15 PM|
|Nov 25||@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers||1:00 PM|
|Dec 2||@ Seattle Seahawks||8:20 PM|
|Dec 9||Denver Broncos||4:05 PM|
|Dec 16||Seattle Seahawks||4:05 PM|
|Dec 23||Chicago Bears||4:05 PM|
|Dec 30||@ Los Angeles Rams||4:25 PM|
2018/19 NFC Divisions - Odds To Win
|2018/19 NFC East Divicion Odds|
|New York Giants||+1000|
|2018/19 NFC West Divicion Odds|
|St. Louis Rams||+750|
|San Francisco 49ers||+900|
|2018/19 NFC North Divicion Odds|
|Green Bay Packers||+150|
|2018/19 NFC South Divicion Odds|
|New Orleans Saints||+150|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+220|
I just argued with @jeffparles for 10 minutes about the 49ers & Browns win totals.— Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) July 9, 2018
Vegas is a wonderful place.